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Mesoscale Discussion 645
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MD/EASTERN SHORES AND EASTERN VA/SOUTHERN
   DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212254Z - 220030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM RISK INCLUDING DAMAGING
   WINDS/SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   EASTERN MD/EASTERN SHORES VICINITY AND PERHAPS EASTERN VA/SOUTHERN
   DE. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED/INCREASED SINCE 22Z ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN MD...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SEVERE-WARNED STORM IN
   CHARLES COUNTY MD NEAR LA PLATA AS OF 2242Z. THESE STORMS IN
   VICINITY OF THE MD EASTERN SHORES APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING NEAR/JUST
   NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ANGLING WARM
   FRONT. IN THIS CORRIDOR...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
   OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY FEEDING THESE STORMS FROM THE
   WEST-SOUTHWEST. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /PER LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY/...IT SEEMS
   PLAUSIBLE THAT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   /THROUGH 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME/. VERTICAL SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT WILL
   SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL
   BOWS MAY BE A MORE PREVALENT CONVECTIVE MODE. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE
   HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38267783 38717743 38527609 38417513 37697513 37337554
               37737645 38267783 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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