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Mesoscale Discussion 646
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA TO
   SOUTHERN OH/FAR NORTH KY AND WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164...166...

   VALID 212350Z - 220115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   164...166...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY
   CONCERN WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA/FAR NORTH KY
   TO SOUTHERN OH/FAR NORTHERN WV...WITH THE MAIN LARGE HAIL RISK
   REGIONALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL/WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 164/166 CONTINUE 01Z...ALTHOUGH PARTS
   OF ONE OR BOTH WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE TEMPORALLY EXTENDED OR
   REPLACED BEYOND 01Z.

   DISCUSSION...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OH RIVER INTO NORTHERN KY...EXITING SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH 164. A SURFACE COLD POOL EXISTS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
   CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ATOP THE COLD POOL
   AND/OR NEAR ITS PERIPHERY. A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   CONTINUES TO FEED ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL IL IN A CORRIDOR GENERALLY BETWEEN CHAMPAIGN-PARIS AS
   OF 2330Z. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   CLUSTER/SURFACE COLD POOL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OH...ALTHOUGH THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS GENERALLY COOLED WITH PREVALENT ANVIL SHADING.
   NONETHELESS...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OH INTO NEARBY WV.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUED BE MONITORED THROUGH 01Z...BUT
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST BEYOND 01Z IN
   AREAS SUCH AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR
   THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/ATOP THE SURFACE COLD POOL...AND/OR ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHERN OH INTO WV.

   ..GUYER.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39788840 40158829 40198773 40138657 40178580 40098516
               40038458 40168441 40188370 39628271 39918151 39708094
               38658087 38068138 38028239 38468358 38438477 38748534
               38858650 38958738 39788840 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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