MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN KS...ADJACENT SRN NEBRASKA/NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 220716Z - 220915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
   KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI
   MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUING RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. 
   IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AN INCREASING
   RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   DISCUSSION...THOUGH FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...CONVECTION WITH A
   PERSISTENT LINEAR STRUCTURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUES TO
   GRADUALLY PROGRESS AROUND THE CREST OF LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER
   RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  TRAILED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...THE BULK OF THE
   ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE
   EAST...ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
   NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  WHILE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN RATHER MODEST /20+
   KT/ DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  AND THE INFLOW OF
   MOIST AIR CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG
   MAY SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
   QUESTION THAT THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE EVOLUTION OF A
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED
   DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING REAR INFLOW JET...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. 
   OTHERWISE...HAIL OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS
   MAY REMAIN A THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39250021 39909932 40189797 40399654 40229525 39609441
               39059522 39009663 38789797 38709906 38870005 39250021