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Mesoscale Discussion 722 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270445Z - 270545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD
AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BY 0600-0630Z. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0435Z...RADAR DATA INDICATED A LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELL LOCATED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...APPROXIMATELY 45 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAREDO...MOVING 305/20 KT. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ZAPATA INTO WESTERN STARR COUNTY BY 0600-0630Z WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS
WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DUE TO
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DE-COUPLING
BOUNDARY LAYER.
..MEAD.. 05/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...BRO...
LAT...LON 26349871 26389884 26429905 26579914 26719919 26799904
26749873 26599850 26399833 26239839 26349871
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