ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292234 
SPC MCD 292234 
FLZ000-GAZ000-300030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 292234Z - 300030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A NARROW
CORRIDOR WHERE MODERATELY/STRONGLY BUOYANT AIR REMAINS LARGELY
UNPERTURBED BY EARLIER ITERATIONS OF CONVECTION -- I.E. AREAS NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY INTO FAR ERN PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT FAR
SRN GA. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH UPON THIS
REGION FROM INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FL AND SRN GA IN A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z RAOBS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
SFC CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA INDICATE 1000-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON PROPAGATION
EFFECTS OWING TO LOCALIZED COLD POOL EXPANSIONS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG A W-COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
PHASING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A DEARTH OF DEEP SHEAR
EXISTS OWING TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 10 KT PER VAX AND TBW VWP DATA.
AS SUCH...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED BUT MAY
SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF VERY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
SMALL HAIL. PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES PER GPS DATA WILL ENHANCE
WATER LOADING TO BOLSTER THE STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER 00-01Z AS NOCTURNAL COOLING STABILIZES THE
INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER.

..COHEN/HART.. 05/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   28028265 29018267 30458427 30918425 30848332 29788255
            28778193 28028265 

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