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Mesoscale Discussion 770
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM...FAR SE CO...FAR SW KS...WRN OK
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312359Z - 010200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   FROM FAR NE NM NEWD TO SRN CO/KS BORDER. SOME SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL MARGINAL SVR THREAT AND LOW COVERAGE
   ARE ANTICIPATED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DAYTIME HEATING AMIDST
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
   THE VICINITY OF A LEE LOW OVER SE CO. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
   BE ISOLATED -- OWING TO WEAK FORCING AND LIMIT SPATIAL EXTENT OF
   INSTABILITY -- BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45 KT WILL LIKELY
   SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM. MOST
   PROMINENT SVR THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS WEAKEN. MARGINALITY OF THE SVR
   THREAT AND LOW COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 05/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35900380 36030430 36650466 37530392 38330294 38510242
               38330172 37770142 37170168 36700217 36060291 35900380 

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