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Mesoscale Discussion 788 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030802Z - 031000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB...AND
EVENTUALLY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST NEB
SINCE AROUND 07Z. AIDED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
/35+ KT PER THE WSR-88D VWP FROM GOODLAND KS/...THESE ELEVATED
STORMS APPEAR TO OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME NEAR AN 850 MB WARM FRONT. WHILE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY MODEST /REFERENCE THE 00Z NORTH
PLATTE OBSERVED SOUNDING/...VARIOUS SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1500+ J PER KG
MUCAPE/ OWING TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR/ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. THE PRIMARY
SHORT-TERM HAIL RISK...ALBEIT LIKELY MARGINAL...WILL BE MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB.
ADDITIONALLY...AS AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR
THROUGH DAYBREAK...VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
00Z AFWA...00Z NSSL-WRF...AND RECENT HRRR OUTPUT INDICATE THAT
STRONG STORMS COULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
BY AROUND SUNRISE OR SOON THEREAFTER. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASIDE...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SOME EXPECTED
ABATEMENT OF CURRENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING VIA THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. LOOKING AHEAD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SCENARIO COULD
POSE A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL ACROSS
SD BY THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 43270337 44030346 44110078 43059918 42069922 41460008
41680158 42430281 43270337
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