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Mesoscale Discussion 798
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO WRN IOWA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

   VALID 032048Z - 032215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...INITIAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY PASS MOSTLY TO THE
   NORTH AND EAST OF OMAHA...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OMAHA METRO AREA BY AROUND 00Z...IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER COULD APPROACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OMAHA METRO
   AREA...BUT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE
   NORTH DURING THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
   MISSOURI RIVER INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.  HOWEVER...RAPID NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNDERWAY UPSTREAM...TO THE NORTH OF ORD...IN
   RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
   ZONE...STRENGTHENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE
   HEATING.  NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE 50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET
   AXIS...THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF ANOTHER INTENSE STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
   PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS COULD IMPACT MUCH OF
   THE OMAHA METRO AREA AND ADJACENT MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY AROUND
   00Z...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING CONVECTIVE
   GUSTS AND A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.  ANY CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE WILL ALSO BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR TORNADOES.

   ..KERR.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42219643 42009534 41749468 41209499 41049604 41189848
               41489999 42179985 42269832 42069736 42219643 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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