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Mesoscale Discussion 816 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD...FAR SWRN ND...FAR
NWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041858Z - 042030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EASTWARD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MT AND ERN ID HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MT SWWRD INTO WY. A CHANNEL OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS EWD OVER THE THREAT AREA...WITH
RIW VWP 6KM WINDS OF 40KTS AT 1800UTC. EXISTING STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-45KT IN 1800 UTC SPC
MESOANALYSIS FIELDS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL SIZE GUIDANCE BASED ON SHORT TERM RAP
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. HIGH PLAINS LOW RH SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS RELATIVELY
LOW...WITH WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS.
..SCHNEIDER/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014
ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 46020698 46560654 46710489 46640286 45830230 44760216
43740226 42600236 42330329 42570474 42790582 44360667
45110697 46020698
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