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Mesoscale Discussion 846
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN GA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235...

   VALID 060213Z - 060345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...INTENSITY OF STORMS COULD BRIEFLY FLARE UP AGAIN ACROSS
   AND EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AUGUSTA AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 03-04Z. 
   HOWEVER... THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SEEMS LOW/LOCALIZED ENOUGH
   THAT A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTA
   AREA HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED...WITH STRONGEST STORMS NOW OCCURRING
   IN A NARROW LINE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL
   APPROACHING THE AUGUSTA GA AREA.  TRENDS IN LIGHTNING...RADAR AND
   SATELLITE DATA ALL INDICATE STEADY WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  WESTERLY AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
   THE COLD POOL IS NOT OPTIMAL...BUT GIVEN THE 35-40 KT EAST
   SOUTHEASTERLY PROPAGATION OF THE COLD POOL...SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW
   COULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST A BRIEF FLARE UP OF
   STORMS ACROSS AND EAST SOUTHEAST OF AUGUSTA THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME
   FRAME.  THE REMNANT MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS
   REGION...NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...DOES NOT APPEAR IMPACTED
   SUBSTANTIALLY BY PRIOR CONVECTION...THOUGH INHIBITION IS PROBABLY
   INCREASING WITH GRADUAL SURFACE COOLING.

   ..KERR.. 06/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34048251 34098211 33768121 33008107 32938207 33048258
               33308292 33598262 34048251 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2014
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