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Mesoscale Discussion 854 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...SERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061709Z - 061945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR STORMS. WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER COASTAL SRN NC
INVOF A FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED FROM S OF WILMINGTON NC WWD TO NEAR
COLUMBIA SC. THE AIR MASS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
MOIST -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F -- AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIFT AIDED BY FRONTAL ASCENT AND SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
PER MODIFIED CHS 12Z RAOB SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...WITH VWPS INDICATING AOB 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE...
POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING OFF THE
SC COAST PER VIS IMAGERY...AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...MAY
BE DELETERIOUS TO THE SUPPORT OF A GREATER SVR RISK.
..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 33628103 34917921 34547767 33867802 32967960 32628069
33628103
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