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Mesoscale Discussion 857 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE TO SCNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061811Z - 062015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KT. LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DRIFT/PROPAGATE
NEWD ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH FRONTAL INTERACTION EXPECTED
ACROSS SD. WDSSII MESH DATA SUGGESTS HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLF BALL
SIZE IS NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2014
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 41350383 43740130 43910011 43080005 41000248 41350383
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