ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061811 
SPC MCD 061811 
NEZ000-SDZ000-062015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE TO SCNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 061811Z - 062015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KT.  LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DRIFT/PROPAGATE
NEWD ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH FRONTAL INTERACTION EXPECTED
ACROSS SD.  WDSSII MESH DATA SUGGESTS HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLF BALL
SIZE IS NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   41350383 43740130 43910011 43080005 41000248 41350383 

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