ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080255 
SPC MCD 080255 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS....AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 080255Z - 080500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED...THEN
WEAKENED...ACROSS SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED /AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED/ ACROSS SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/K AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 45
KNOTS...THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA/. THIS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES.

MUCH LATER TONIGHT...A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS AN
UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS/ ACCELERATES
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND APPROACHES THE AREA.

..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 06/08/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34799611 35309589 35599536 35599465 35359398 34799357
            34089356 33479394 33419465 33559520 33859578 34329614
            34799611 

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