MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081720Z - 081945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1007-MB LOW BETWEEN
   COLUMBUS AND MANSFIELD OHIO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN NY AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SW
   OF THE LOW INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT -- E.G. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S -- WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN
   POTENTIAL BUOYANCY OWING TO A FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW -- REF. 12Z BNA RAOB DEPICTING
   H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AROUND 7 C/KM -- AND A FEED OF INSOLATION-STEEPENED
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM WV INTO SWRN PA. 

   SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND
   A LEADING BAND OF WAA-RELATED CONVECTION IN WRN PA...AIDED BY SFC
   CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   WHILE ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR...THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE ILN/PBZ VWPS
   SUGGESTS DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   STORMS. DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...MAY EVOLVE WHERE SFC
   WINDS ARE MORE BACKED -- I.E. E OF A CONFLUENCE AXIS DRAWN N/S OVER
   WRN PA AND INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME SVR RISK
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR W AS CENTRAL OHIO...THE GREATEST SVR RISK
   AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE ARE ANTICIPATED FROM FAR ERN
   OHIO EWD INTO CNTRL PA WHERE THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO
   EXIST.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39988264 40918205 41658051 41897895 41627814 40677773
               39297872 38598092 38718200 39278252 39988264