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Mesoscale Discussion 911
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE SRN HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 263...264...

   VALID 090024Z - 090200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 263...264...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SRN PORTION OF AN EXTENSIVE QLCS ACROSS NERN NM WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THIS RISK MAY LARGELY TRANSITION
   TO STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE QLCS LIKELY SHIFTS E
   OF WW 263 LATER THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE PROBABILITY BY
   02Z IS 70 PERCENT. MORE ROBUST SUPERCELLS SHOULD LARGELY DEVELOP
   SEWD OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WITHIN WW 264.

   DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS QLCS CONTINUES
   ACROSS NERN NM...WITH A SMALL-SCALE BOW FROM AN EARLIER EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL LIKELY PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS INTO PARTS OF SAN MIGUEL AND
   HARDING COUNTIES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS
   REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL /ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/.
   NEVERTHELESS...00Z AMA RAOB SAMPLED MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY LLJ MASS RESPONSE IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER WRN KS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...SUFFICIENT
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WILL EXIST FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK
   AS THE QLCS LIKELY PROPAGATES SEWD THIS EVENING.

   FARTHER S...THREE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE NOW
   EVOLVED/DEVELOPED INTO EDDY COUNTY NM WITHIN WW 264. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED
   SEVERE WIND...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN THE MOST FAVORABLE
   CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN THE CONUS /PER 00Z MAF RAOB/. THESE CELLS
   MAY MERGE INTO A SEWD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
   AS LOW-LEVEL SELYS STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AMIDST LOWER TO MIDDLE
   60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   31410177 31240366 32100481 33080487 35420483 36340371
               36900280 37150237 37330221 37340112 36249991 35839991
               34970049 33850168 33260178 31410177 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2014
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