ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090047 
SPC MCD 090047 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-090215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262...

VALID 090047Z - 090215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 262
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST PAST 02 UTC. A NEW WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
GENERATED/REINFORCED BY PREVIOUS DAYS/NIGHTS OF CONVECTION. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH MAY BE AUGMENTED BY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MCV OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA/
ARE DEVELOPING IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG/ AND SHEARED /DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS/
ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS UPDRAFTS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT LASTING PAST THE
EXPIRATION OF WATCH 262 AT 02Z...A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 262.

ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT CAN RESIDE WITHIN THE ZONE OF BACKED SURFACE WINDS ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO RISK.

..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32909470 34369416 34119076 34058823 32238845 31998989
            31189178 31159425 32359470 32909470 

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