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Mesoscale Discussion 1006 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SE KS...N OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...299...
VALID 150742Z - 150915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
297...299...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL REMAIN PROBABLE WITH TRAILING PORTION OF QLCS ACROSS PARTS OF S
KS/N OK. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE/EXTENSION INTO SE KS IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...GREATER THAN 35 DBZ REFLECTIVITY IN 9-KM CAPPI HAS
BECOME CONFINED WITHIN THE SW/NE-ORIENTED PORTION OF THE QLCS ACROSS
S-CNTRL KS TO NW OK. THIS TYPE OF ORIENTATION MORE CLOSELY PARALLELS
DEEP-LAYER FLOW PER AREA VWP DATA. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
REMAINING AROUND 10-20 NM AHEAD OF THE HIGH REFLECTIVITY
CORES...THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE RISK.
STILL...WITH WARM SECTOR INFLOW CHARACTERIZED BY 67-71 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS AND A 65-KT LLJ AT 1 KM AGL PER VNX VWP DATA...STRONG
STORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SCENARIO
APPEARS REASONABLY SIMULATED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS.
..GRAMS.. 06/15/2014
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 38099668 37879506 37609475 37259472 36879500 36279629
36119773 36189966 36439971 36959837 37819713 38099668
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