ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161801 
SPC MCD 161801 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-162000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OH AND NORTHERN WV
TO WESTERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 161801Z - 162000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OH AND NORTHERN WV INTO WESTERN
OH.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OH SINCE LATE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INCREASINGLY WARM/WEAKLY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE/SUBTLE MCV VIA
UPSTREAM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...A GENERAL PREVALENCE
OF 80S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS
LEADING TO AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...BASED ON CONTEMPORARY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON OH ASIDE
FROM THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS. WHILE THE REGION IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...MODEST WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3-6 KM AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ADEQUATE CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUSTAINED EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT SEVERE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER CALIBER WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM WRIGHT-PATERSON AFB /37
KT/ AND PARKERSBURG WV /40 KT/.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39248360 39948365 41208228 41668009 41297947 39547970
            38668115 38428246 39248360 

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