ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162050 
SPC MCD 162050 
NEZ000-KSZ000-162245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SWRN NEB/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 162050Z - 162245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IS APPARENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA -- PENDING POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...OBSERVED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS
ATTM.  WHILE THE AIRMASS HAS REMAINED CAPPED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS YIELDED A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH 3500 TO 4500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE INDICATED.

WHILE FORCING/CONVERGENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND WHILE
HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST NO DEVELOPMENT S OF THE
KS/NEB BORDER...ADDITIONAL HEATING/EWD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCAL BREACHES OF THE CAP YIELDING ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE...AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH OBSERVED SHEAR
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS -- WOULD SUPPORT RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO.
 WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS
AREA -- WITH AN EYE TOWARD POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   41149870 40899827 39819804 38879829 38149855 38119969
            38539977 39410025 40260072 41150074 41149870 

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