ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 162259 SPC MCD 162259 MTZ000-WYZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / FAR NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 162259Z - 170030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER SERN MT AS STORMS MOVE NEWD INTO SOMEWHAT LARGER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE OVER SERN MT. DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM WRN SD INTO SERN MT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S. SEVERAL INTENSIFYING STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN BIG HORN COUNTY MT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C PER KM/. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED STORM THREAT. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE MID-EVENING HOURS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT LENDS UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEED FOR A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... LAT...LON 45480481 44180660 45440774 46530851 46980772 47260623 47080538 46430458 45480481 NNNN