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Mesoscale Discussion 1032
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...N IL...FAR SE WI/NE MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307...308...309...

   VALID 170629Z - 170800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   307...308...309...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD
   WITH A PAIR OF MCS/S EVOLVING E/SE FROM CNTRL IA AND SE WI. PORTIONS
   OF WW 307/308 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED/LOCALLY EXTENDED BEYOND 08Z
   SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...OF THE TWO MCS/S...THE MOST PROMINENT NEAR-TERM SEVERE
   RISK IS EVIDENT WITH BOWING STRUCTURE OVER DES MOINES METRO AREA.
   ALTHOUGH THIS MCS IS ATOP THE REMNANT OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM 10 SW
   OXV TO 30 NW BRL AS OF 06Z...STRONG PRESSURE RISES HAVE PERSISTED IN
   THE COLD POOL OVER W-CNTRL IA. WITH A 60 KT SWLY LLJ SAMPLED IN EAX
   VWP DATA...AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF NEAR 80 DEG F SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS S OF THE OUTFLOW...IT IS
   PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS BOW COULD PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS SE IA AND
   MAINTAIN RISKS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS /REF 49 KT GUST KAMW
   AT 0604Z/. 

   WITH THE ERN MCS...PRESSURE RISES HAVE BEEN WEAKER AND OVERALL
   SYSTEM STRENGTH SHOULD BE MORE SUBDUED OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
   INSTABILITY RELATIVE TO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY.
   NEVERTHELESS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR
   LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING THE MUCH COOLER LK MI AIR
   MASS.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41299418 41759340 42189283 42049218 41799121 41828988
               42708857 43808821 43778799 43248790 42008794 41268892
               40669044 40269169 40299256 40469338 40959424 41299418 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2014
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