ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181532 
SPC MCD 181532 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-181730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 181532Z - 181730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ADVANCING ACROSS SRN LAKE MI ATTM WILL MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE SRN LOWER MI VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTS THAT
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED/LOCALIZED -- AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT
WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO MOVING
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI ATTM...AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
SRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
MCS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND S OF THE SRN BORDER OF LOWER
MI.  STILL...THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS BOW AS INDICATED BY
RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AT 40
KT.  IN ADDITION...SOME RISK THAT INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE SRN
FLANK OF THE BOW SEEMS TO EXIST GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INTO INDIANA/OH -- DESPITE INDICATIONS TO
THE CONTRARY WITHIN RECENT WRF-HRRR RUNS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS -- PARTICULARLY ON ITS SRN FRINGE
-- FOR SIGNS THAT A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   43308651 43378476 43168247 42828221 41638318 40918388
            41158560 41608749 42748665 43308651 

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