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Mesoscale Discussion 1064 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181956Z - 182130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL
INDIANA AS THE AIRMASS REACHES PEAK AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
SEVERE RISK REMAINS ISOLATED...BUT COULD REQUIRE WW IF STORMS
ORGANIZE UPSCALE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL A VERY
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA...STORMS TRAILING
WWD INTO E CENTRAL IL NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NOW OVER
THE IROQUOIS/FORD/CHAMPAIGN/VERMILION COUNTY VICINITY OF IL SHOWING
SOME BOWING TENDENCY.
WHILE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KM REMAINS RELATIVELY MODEST /AOB 20 KT
PER AREA VWPS/...THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT --
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT -- TO SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. SOME HIGH-RES
CONVECTION-ALLOWING RUNS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED/BOWING CLUSTER MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
SUNSET...AND THIS EVOLUTION WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38968752 38878848 39348900 40038891 40438808 40628677
40468506 39218591 38988670 38968752
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