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Mesoscale Discussion 1068
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0523 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL-SERN ND / NCNTRL-NERN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322...

   VALID 182223Z - 190000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 322 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SCNTRL ND AND NCNTRL SD INTO
   EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO SERN
   ND AND NERN SD WHERE A LOCAL WW EXTENSION OR NEW WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 22Z SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW TO THE WEST OF
   YANKTON SD WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NNWWD ACROSS NCNTRL SD.
   MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
   TROUGH WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...THE ABERDEEN WSR-88 VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT
   WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 230 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS CELLS MOVE
   ACROSS THE NERN PART OF WW 322 OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. USING
   EXISTING STORM MOTIONS...THE STORMS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF WW 322 AFTER 01Z WHERE A LOCAL EXTENSION IN AREA OR NEW
   WW MAY BE BECOME NECESSARY.

   FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN ND AND WCNTRL SD...SFC
   WINDS ARE NWLY AND THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
   STORMS. FOR THIS REASON...STARK...HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES IN ND
   AND PERKINS...ZIEBACH AND HAAKON COUNTIES IN SD MAY BE REMOVED AT
   23Z.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47220107 45290075 45059795 46489706 47689809 47220107 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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