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Mesoscale Discussion 1069 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...CNTRL/SRN OH...SERN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182230Z - 182330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND S/EWD INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW WW ISSUANCE FROM SERN IND ENEWD INTO WRN PA WILL BE CONTINGENT
ON TRENDS FOR INCREASING COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MAGNITUDE
OF THE WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A COLD POOL EMANATING OUT OF THE SRN END OF A
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER CNTRL IND AND NWRN OH IS MERGING
WITH MORE DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TO THE S...ACROSS
S-CNTRL IND AND W-CNTRL OH...AND MORE RECENTLY ACROSS NWRN PA.
LATEST STORM REPORTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS
SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES. TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BOTH THE COLD POOL AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS/. WITH 20-30 KT OF AMBIENT WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...THREAT FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST...WITH WW
ISSUANCE PREDICATED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION.
..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/18/2014
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 41177880 40187973 39368181 38968447 39068610 39418615
40208518 40958352 41338249 41617974 41177880
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