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Mesoscale Discussion 1083
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/E NEB...W IA...SE SD...SW MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 332...333...

   VALID 190815Z - 190945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   332...333...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...GREATEST NEAR-TERM SEVERE WIND RISK CONTINUES WITH MCS
   OVER CNTRL NEB /REF 57 KT GUST KODX 0748Z/...PRIMARILY JUST N OF
   EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED.
   HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY HAS LARGELY WEAKENED AND CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW HAS SURGED WELL-AHEAD OF THE CORES. WITH MLCIN STRONGER WITH
   SRN EXTENT...THE MORE ROBUST COLD POOL WILL PROBABLY DECAY TO JUST
   ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONT ACROSS NE NEB TOWARDS SIOUXLAND.
   IT/S POSSIBLE THAT UPDRAFTS COULD FLARE UP AS IT INTERCEPTS THE MORE
   BUOYANT AIR MASS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. A FLARE-UP MAY ALSO OCCUR
   OVER PARTS OF SE SD/SW MN AS W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTER NEAR FSD MERGES
   WITH OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING MCS OVER MN.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41609882 41989824 42579777 43589763 43929737 44229605
               44019559 42829578 41969604 41129660 40489773 40269840
               40249887 40389924 40619931 41609882 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2014
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