ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 191606 
SPC MCD 191606 
VAZ000-191830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 191606Z - 191830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WRN AND CNTRL VA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-DAY...DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL VA HAS CONTRIBUTED MODERATE INSTABILITY
/2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS OBSERVED OVER SERN
WV MOVING ESEWD. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS MIGHT
UNDERGO TEMPORARY WEAKENING OVER WRN VA DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF DOWN
SLOPING BEFORE POSSIBLY RE-INTENSIFYING. DEEPER FORCING ACCOMPANYING
AN MCV OVER SWRN PA AND NRN WV MAY GLANCE THIS REGION...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHING A BELT OF
20-35 KT WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37558024 38217941 38457862 38157791 37487785 36637863
            36898031 37558024 

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