MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191810Z - 191945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. A
   WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO DICTATE
   OTHERWISE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS WRN IA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH
   OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE ONLY PARTIAL RECOVERY OF THE
   SFC LAYER HAS OCCURRED. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW SFC
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F...AND PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS IN
   WAKE OF STORMS OVER ERN IA SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE
   STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THIS REGION. VWP
   DATA SHOW WEAK FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER INCREASING TO AROUND
   35-40 KT AT 500 MB AND 30-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE
   DEVELOPING MULTICELL LINES. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINAL
   FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MIGHT
   BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40759626 42329526 43219519 43789492 43439395 42309375
               40899487 40349615 40759626