ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 191943 SPC MCD 191943 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-192145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...NW TX...FAR E-CNTRL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191943Z - 192145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE. PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND NW TX. AIRMASS THROUGH THIS REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST W OF ICT SWWD TO JUST N OF AMA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LARGELY WASHED OUT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT LIKELY STILL EXISTS OVER WRN OK. ADDITIONALLY...GRAVITY WAVE FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS ALSO APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING SEWD IN NW TX/SRN TX PANHANDLE. RECENT CU NEAR CVS WAS LIKELY INITIATED BY THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY ACT AS AN IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. BETTER SHEAR CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND EXPECTED OVER AREAS FARTHER E THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND SOME SVR HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED STORM PROXIMITY/COVERAGE...A QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/19/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33430059 33480283 33660370 33930387 34530368 34740343 35110269 36010016 36329956 36709876 36669771 35599769 34349809 33589918 33430059 NNNN