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Mesoscale Discussion 1102
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA...FAR
   NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN KS...AND FAR NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...

   VALID 210657Z - 210800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
   07-08Z...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SERN NEB INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR
   SWRN IA...NWRN MO AND NERN KS.  ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
   GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITHIN SOUTH
   CENTRAL TO SERN NEB WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM LEADING ACTIVITY IN FAR SERN NEB.  CURRENT WEAKENING
   TRENDS WITH SERN NEB STORMS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE
   THREAT WITH THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEB ACTIVITY SUGGESTS A NEW WW IS NOT
   WARRANTED...AND ANY SPATIAL AND/OR TEMPORAL EXTENSIONS WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED AS WELL.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVING MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IA AND NWRN MO
   /FROM 40 SW OTM TO 15 WNW CDJ TO NEAR STJ TO 30 WSW FNB/...WITH THE
   SECOND OUTFLOW EXTENDING FROM 15 NW FNB TO 15 N CNK TO 40 ENE HLC TO
   25 W MCK.

   ONE OF THE LEADING LINES OF TSTMS...THAT MOVED THROUGH LNK AT 0516Z
   PRODUCING A 51 KT WIND GUST...HAS DECREASED IN ITS FORWARD SPEED
   DURING THE LAST 30-60 MINUTES.  ALTHOUGH SOME SEWD MOVEMENT WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE SERN PORTION OF WW 339...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   SLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS FURTHER
   DECELERATION SHOULD PERSIST.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED
   REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO NERN KS AND NWRN MO. 
   MEANWHILE...WEAKENING TRENDS IN 7 KM AND 9 KM WDSS-II CAPPI WITH THE
   STORMS FARTHER WWD IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...LOCATED NORTH OF AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING AS WELL.  A 40 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING
   INTO THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY.  MOST OF THE HIGH RES CAMS
   SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION
   THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.

   ..PETERS.. 06/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41209982 41179878 41119849 40859753 40789672 40959613
               41369566 41269546 41139445 41129401 40259376 39809419
               39699500 39579594 39609722 39649801 39599882 39699962
               39929980 40140018 41030026 41209982 

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Page last modified: June 21, 2014
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