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Mesoscale Discussion 1124 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KANSAS...NWRN OK...THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...347...
VALID 230119Z - 230245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
346...347...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 03-06Z. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION OF WWS 346 AND 347.
DISCUSSION...MERGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NEW
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR GARDEN CITY...SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE ELKHART AREA. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE PROMINENT COLD
POOL SURGING OUT OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AS
IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR. THIS PROCESS MAY BE AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFICATION ABOVE THE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH MAY
FOCUS THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
..KERR.. 06/23/2014
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36060368 36340251 36870157 37380063 37900012 38159973
37909782 37129730 34959862 34389989 34210113 34730353
36060368
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