MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL...NRN IND...FAR SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231755Z - 232000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS
   AFTERNOON.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

   DISCUSSION...THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN IL/IND/WRN OH IS HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZING...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG /PER
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS/.  THE OVERALL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW LEADING TO GENERALLY
   LESS THAN 20 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THUS...STORMS WILL GENERALLY
   STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE.  ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG/NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE SRN LOWER MI BORDER.  ANOTHER EXCEPTION MAY
   BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS ECNTRL IL AHEAD OF THE MCV...WHERE SHEAR MAY
   BE ENHANCED LEADING TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT /SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS/.

   ..JIRAK/CARBIN.. 06/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40718891 41018845 41258822 41398793 41528766 41798672
               42158624 42188572 42178508 42128437 42048391 41868356
               41408360 41018383 40768424 40448511 40278578 40128610
               39928671 39578718 39338770 39338833 39528871 39718905
               39968918 40718891