ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 232215 SPC MCD 232215 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...FAR NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 232215Z - 232315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT. DISCUSSION...AT 2200Z...STRONG TSTMS WERE ONGOING FROM NRN INDIANA INTO SRN LOWER MI...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED NW OF LINE FROM LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO KALAMAZOO MI AND OTHER LESS ORGANIZED STORMS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN INDIANA. DESPITE GENERALLY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-1.8 IN/ HAS RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG NOTED IN OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST...SFC WINDS HAVE LOCALLY BACKED TO SELY ACROSS NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AS NOTED IN THE IWX VWP. AIDED BY THIS LOCALLY ENHANCED SRH...A COUPLE OF SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH WITH HIGH PW IN PLACE...OUTFLOW HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED THE AIRMASS THUS FAR. THE LACK OF COLDER/MORE STABLE OUTFLOW FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM-BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE CELL. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF THE LINE SEGMENT CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. GIVEN THE GENERALLY LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA...THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..DEAN/KERR.. 06/23/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 40908681 41388685 41738675 42188639 42588546 42628484 42668431 42578402 42368376 42058373 41778395 41638416 41268470 40808495 40548560 40738645 40908681 NNNN