ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241753 
SPC MCD 241753 
KSZ000-COZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS INTO E CNTRL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 241753Z - 242000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL HAVE FORMED ACROSS
NWRN KS NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS INTERFACING WITH A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE S. WINDS VEER FROM SLY TO NWLY
WITH HEIGHT...WITH SUFFICIENT HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SHORT
LIVED SEVERE CELLS. WITH TIME...CELLS COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND GROW UPSCALE WITH MORE OF A WIND THREAT. IF
THIS OCCURS...A WATCH WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY LOW LCLS AS WELL AS WEAKLY VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF WEAK
TORNADO.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 06/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37350040 37860166 38400235 38920268 39230261 39340197
            39210126 38789964 38589895 38139867 37729863 37199940
            37350040 

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