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Mesoscale Discussion 1166
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY / WRN SD / SERN MT / SWRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357...358...

   VALID 270213Z - 270315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   357...358...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 357 AND 358. AS SUCH...A NEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH OR LOCAL WFO EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVER NERN WY HAS RECENTLY
   INTENSIFIED NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS IN WRN SD WITH A
   WIND GUST TO 67 MPH OBSERVED IN SPEARFISH. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD
   POOL ATTENDANT TO THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
   STRONG AND DEEP TO TAP THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING. CURRENT RADAR DATA
   SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
   TOWERS...CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THE
   MCS. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ IS ANTICIPATED
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BALANCE THE
   SURGING COLD POOL AND ENHANCE MORE UPRIGHT UPDRAFT GROWTH IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO THE GUST FRONT. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...A LONGER
   DURATION DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL EVENT MAY PERSIST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN SD...POSSIBLY INTO SWRN ND.

   FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SECONDARY BAND OF ASCENT APPEARS TO BE
   MOVING THROUGH THE BIG HORN BASIN...ENHANCING DOWNSHEAR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN WY INTO SERN MT. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECONDARY CONVECTIVE REGIME...ANTECEDENT
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING BY THE WRN SD STORMS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
   STORM COVERAGE.

   ..MEAD/GUYER.. 06/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43790521 44310594 44630657 45190665 45790635 46360524
               46520475 46560389 46330334 45980256 45090215 44160216
               43540255 43350325 43330376 43500471 43790521 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2014
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