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Mesoscale Discussion 1169 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271551Z - 271645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER IN
FAR SOUTHWEST LA LATE THIS MORNING ALONG A W-E ORIENTED SFC
BOUNDARY/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /NOTED IN LATEST WV IMAGERY/ TRACKING EWD ACROSS SRN TX AND
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z RAOB FROM LCH SHOWED A VERTICALLY
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WITH 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 250 M2/S2 IN A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 14 G/KG AND SBCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE N/NE ACROSS
SRN/SERN LA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD.
GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND MOISTURE PROFILES...A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH. GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND SOME DRIER
AIR AROUND 850-700 MB COUPLED WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COULD
LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS WELL. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30179386 30569336 30829264 30889185 30799113 30479039
30209009 30069006 29738979 29428962 29198966 29068993
28999061 29249152 29459256 29589346 29769382 29929385
30179386
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