ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271930 
SPC MCD 271930 
IAZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-272030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...PORTIONS OF FAR NE MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 271930Z - 272030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN
IA/FAR NE MO THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NEWD TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRESENT WITH EWD EXTENT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PW VALUES AOA 1.5
INCHES...COUPLED WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER /PER NAM
AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ WILL FAVOR OCCASIONALLY STRONG/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT LONGEVITY OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND OVERALL
STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42029314 42879226 42929166 42779107 42339051 41949034
            41499064 40819114 40399192 40259280 40259361 40429398
            40749403 41509370 42029314 

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