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Mesoscale Discussion 1192
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0609 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...CNTRL/ERN IA...NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...

   VALID 282309Z - 290045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK CONTINUES IN AND NORTH OF
   THE REMAINING PART OF WW 365. UNLESS THERE IS AN UPTICK IN STORM
   INTENSITY...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A N/S ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
   REMAINING PART OF WW 365...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER NORTH INTO
   NRN MN. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS ALONG THE LINE...THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN A
   MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT THUS FAR. UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW PARALLEL TO
   THE LINE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT...WHILE A PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE AND ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY LIMITING THE HAIL THREAT. 

   WHILE SOME WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF THE WATCH...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
   BE NECESSARY UNLESS AN UPTICK IN STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY IS
   OBSERVED. AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WILL ALSO EXIST NORTH OF WW 365
   INTO CNTRL/NRN MN...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS SIMILAR TO THAT
   OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATCH...BUT WW ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA IS NOT
   EXPECTED GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   ..DEAN.. 06/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   40839336 41989327 43519330 45099329 46069340 47249387
               48099425 48629453 48609401 48439269 48119176 46409152
               45109138 43679124 42349111 41779107 41209125 40789146
               40839336 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2014
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