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Mesoscale Discussion 1210
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371...372...

   VALID 301216Z - 301345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   371...372...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND
   ERN NEB EWD ACROSS MUCH OF IA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH MID-MORNING. WW 371 MAY NEED TO
   BE EXTENDED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NEB BEYOND THE 13Z EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW OVER WRN KS
   WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS FAR NW KS AND CNTRL NEB.  AN
   INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDED NEWD INTO ECNTRL NEB JUST AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDED EWD FROM SCNTRL NEB
   INTO SRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. ALONG
   THIS CORRIDOR...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WAS ALREADY IN PLACE
   WITH RAP-V2 DATA SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY FROM WEST OF A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY IA TO OMAHA NEB.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A 70 TO 90 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET MAX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-MO VALLEY. DUE THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN
   NEB AND THE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CNTRL AND ERN IA WILL HAVE
   A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT
   SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING AND WW 371 IN NERN NEB MAY NEED TO
   BE EXTENDED IN TIME FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND THE 13Z EXPIRATION.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42669134 42339099 42089100 41689115 41409172 41369282
               41549492 41329771 41299921 41619973 42329952 42809860
               42939477 42889231 42789175 42669134 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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