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Mesoscale Discussion 1225
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE CO...SW KS...OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377...

   VALID 302350Z - 010115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A STORM CLUSTER IN SE CO WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THIS EVENING
   WHILE MOVING INTO SW KS AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE.  DAMAGING WINDS
   AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.  OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
   AFTER 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL/NE KS WHICH COULD WARRANT A NEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT HAS
   REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH-BASED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SE CO.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM TO THE
   SE OF THESE STORMS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE FROM NEAR 40 F
   IN SE CO TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OK PANHANDLE.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
   MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS...AND WILL FAVOR
   CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO
   THE WATCH AREA.  STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND LARGE CAPE WILL FAVOR
   SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
   FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE AS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HYBRID MICROBURSTS
   WITH BOTH SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION LOADING AND LARGE DCAPE WITH
   DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES.

   A SIMILARLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS ENEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   INTO CENTRAL/NE KS...WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPENING
   CONVECTION IN A COUPLE OF BANDS.  IF THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
   DEVELOP...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY AFTER
   00Z.

   ..THOMPSON/DIAL.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   36950271 37340266 37690256 37800230 37720194 37570167
               37510100 37410020 37729907 38769723 39349626 39759560
               39859528 39419501 39079507 38579567 37919675 37309782
               36949879 36510058 36510103 36500175 36540220 36690249
               36950271 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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