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Mesoscale Discussion 1228 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376...
VALID 010048Z - 010145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 376 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK TRANSITIONING MORE TO DAMAGING WIND/HAIL AS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LINEAR ALONG COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION...THE EARLIER SUPERCELL ACROSS N CENTRAL MO APPEARS TO
HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES...WHILE NEW STORMS HAVE FORMED
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS NW MO. A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ACROSS NRN MO TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND
VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT AWAY FROM THE IA/MO BORDER.
THUS...THE SETUP APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES...WHICH FAVORS DAMAGING
GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. STILL...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH CONVECTION INTERACTING
WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE E-W OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER.
..THOMPSON.. 07/01/2014
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40299073 40009136 39669292 39519395 39419448 39249514
39339538 39629537 40239434 40679355 40719291 40709202
40709128 40569069 40299073
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