ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032359 
SPC MCD 032359 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-040200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD...DE...FAR ERN PA...NJ...SERN-ERN
NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...WRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391...

VALID 032359Z - 040200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE VALID
PORTION OF WW 391...WITH COLD POOLS ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.  COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGER BANDS OF STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE AIR MASS
IS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED...AND THUS COULD BE CANCELLED FROM THIS
WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY /REFLECTIVITIES AND
VELOCITY/ INDICATED AT LEAST TWO COLD POOL ENHANCED LINES OF
STORMS...1/ MOVING EWD FROM SRN VT INTO CENTRAL/SRN NH AT 40+
KT...AND 2/ MOVING NEWD AT 40+ KT INTO CENTRAL/NRN NJ FROM ERN PA. 
THIS LATTER LINE PRODUCED A 57 KT WIND GUST AT KPNE IN SERN PA AT
2317Z.  ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE BANDS OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SWRN
MA/NWRN CT INTO SERN NY AND NRN NJ. 

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
REMAINING IN PLACE FROM NJ NEWD THROUGH CT...WRN/CENTRAL MA...NH TO
WRN ME.  THE AFOREMENTIONED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO THIS CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE CONVECTION...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...HAIL REMAINS A
THREAT...AND EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
AKQ...CTP...

LAT...LON   38357478 38567593 39357607 40087591 40567592 41257517
            41627454 42487385 43797338 44657319 45007243 45377080
            46567005 46556976 44656925 43816991 43017066 42607059
            42117133 41587185 41357242 38357478 

NNNN