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Mesoscale Discussion 1289
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0950 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND...N-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395...

   VALID 070250Z - 070345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD AT AROUND
   50 MPH...POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CURRENT
   MOTION EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS IT APPROACHING THE BISMARCK AREA BETWEEN
   0330-0400Z...AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER AROUND 0500Z. TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NRN SD.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG-LIVED ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL TRACKING SEWD ACROSS MERCER COUNTY ND AT AROUND 50
   KT...DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES ALONG THE WRN FLANK.
   STORM REPORTS INDICATE THIS STORM IS LIKELY PRODUCING BOTH SVR
   WIND/HAIL. RECENT TRENDS SHOW MERGERS OCCURRING WITH WEAKER
   ANCILLARY CELLS...WHICH MAY SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO A SMALL MCS.
   THIS STORM MAY POSE A DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT TO PARTS OF
   THE BISMARCK METRO AREA AROUND 0330-0400Z. 

   THE SAMPLED ENVIRONMENT INVOF THIS STORM SUGGESTS BOTH INSTABILITY
   AND AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW
   AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAVE SUPPORTED A LONGER-LIVED THREAT AS THE
   STORM PROGRESSES INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. DIURNAL COOLING AND
   A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER LEND SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
   TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST 
   INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46250148 47010208 47420216 47660197 47710161 47670128
               47450086 47150047 46649985 45689943 45650081 46250148 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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