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Mesoscale Discussion 1308 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND N-CNTRL CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080234Z - 080330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NERN AND
N-CNTRL CO...WITH TSTMS EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE
EVENING...AND WHILE A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS A
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING FROM THE NW INTERACTS WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE TSTMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS.
THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /E.G. UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS/...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA IS POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG
W-NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...WITH STORMS OVER LARIMER/BOULDER COUNTIES
APPEARING MORE ORGANIZED THAN CONVECTION FARTHER S. DESPITE THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...THE
AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE INTO THE LATE
EVENING...WITH MUCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN AOA 500-1000 J/KG.
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HRS INVOF AREAS OF
ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...WITH PROPAGATION OF TSTMS
AFFECTED BY ORIENTATION/INTERACTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2014
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38980263 38970365 39460501 40000569 40590577 40830558
40810528 40600485 40260430 39960356 39750298 39380256
38980263
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