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Mesoscale Discussion 1321 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082306Z - 090000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
EXIST ACROSS SRN/CNTRL OK THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT ORIENTED W-E FROM COMANCHE INTO PONTOTOC COUNTIES. WEAK
DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS LIMITING TSTM ORGANIZATION...WHICH IS REFLECTED
BY PULSE-LIKE APPEARANCE AND GENERATION OF SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AMIDST
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS YIELDED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG/...AND DEEP INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DMGG
WIND GUSTS VIA STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...AND
PERHAPS BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS
SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET.
..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2014
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34669576 34409741 34429832 34519915 34849941 35079931
35449762 35519677 35379603 35189565 34959564 34669576
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