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Mesoscale Discussion 1335
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEB/KS AND NORTHERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409...

   VALID 100739Z - 100915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 409
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL NEB AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   KS...BUT ON AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED BASIS. SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH 409 CONTINUES ACROSS KS UNTIL 10Z...WHILE TEMPORALLY EXTENDED
   WATCH 408 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. SOME SEVERE THREAT /HAIL
   AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO PARTS OF
   NORTHERN OK...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY /20
   PERCENT/.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
   HISTORY OF HAIL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/FOCUS ALONG STORM-SCALE OUTFLOW
   IN AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SYNOPTIC
   FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION-AIDED ASCENT WILL
   PERSIST...STORM INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS INHIBITION FURTHER
   INCREASES AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OCCURS. 

   FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS HAVE GENERALLY CONGEALED OVER THE PAST HOUR
   OR SO INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING MCS ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. WITH SOME DEGREE OF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
   OCCURRING...A MODERATELY-STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO
   BE IMPINGING ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE MCS VIA WSR-88D VWP
   DATA FROM DODGE CITY KS/VANCE AFB OK. ASSOCIATED STORM RELATIVE
   INFLOW /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD
   PROPAGATION AND A MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO OK
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE QUITE LIMITED IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
   DISCOUNTED ACROSS OK INTO THE 08-11Z TIME FRAME.

   ..GUYER.. 07/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41649987 40349899 38639796 37589731 36389566 36269875
               37729907 41100046 41649987 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2014
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