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Mesoscale Discussion 1457 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241606Z - 241730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. PLANS ARE TO
INCLUDE THIS AREA IN A 15% SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL ON THE 1630Z OUTLOOK
UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED
STORMS PERSIST FROM SERN ND INTO ERN SD...MOVING SSEWD ALONG A
NNW-SSE ORIENTED INSTABILITY/THETA-E GRADIENT. STORMS ARE ELEVATED
AND LIKELY ROOTED IN THE 700-750 MB LAYER BASED ON THE 12Z ABERDEEN
RAOB. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ABOVE THE LCL ALONG WITH
MODERATE MUCAPE...AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. WHILE IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON
NOSE OF A PERSISTENT SLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL EVER BECOME SFC
BASED GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLY LLJ.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 07/24/2014
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 43289531 42529640 43859722 46319878 46489661 43289531
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