MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281737Z - 281830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NY WILL
   HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE
   LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING BENEATH COLD
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NY.
   AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST CORES
   HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. ONE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING/EXPANDING
   CU FIELD. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THIS AREA /INCLUDING PARTS OF CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY VT/NH/ AS A
   WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD...AND IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
   RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40 KT/ IN PLACE TO
   SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41667397 42197470 43027482 43897310 44547263 45067168
               45257095 44907022 44376989 43527028 41947256 41857284
               41737373 41667397