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Mesoscale Discussion 1518 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071851Z - 072115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS MAY OCCUR WITH POTENTIALLY A GREATER RISK FOR
SEVERE WINDS TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE SRN DENVER METRO AREA WITH HAIL REPORTED UP TO
QUARTER SIZE. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL SWLYS /PER AMDAR DATA INVOF DEN/ DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN. STRONG SPEED SHEAR
BETWEEN 500-300 MB WILL FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION WITH INITIAL
UPDRAFTS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR. BUT WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PER FTG/PUX/CYS/GLD
VWP DATA...SUSTAINABILITY OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN QUESTIONABLE.
AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SWD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MASS RESPONSE AND MODERATE BUOYANCY TOWARDS THE KS BORDER...MAY
FOSTER A DEEPENING COLD POOL. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCREASE IN THE
SEVERE WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SE CO AND FAR W KS TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING.
..GRAMS/GOSS.. 08/07/2014
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 40270453 40410375 40230227 39960166 39460134 38320114
37460130 37010205 36900290 36870373 36950425 37820493
38860525 39900481 40270453
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